Kenya’s ruling coalition fractures and partially repairs as ODM and UDA fight over the terms of 2027

Kenya’s ODM and President William Ruto’s UDA have eased a public rift, but the deeper dispute over their political arrangement remains unresolved. ODM briefly suspended coalition talks this month, told members to stop backing Ruto’s 2027 re-election bid and accused UDA figures of trying to weaken the party’s base. The immediate flashpoint was electoral zoning, with ODM seeking assurances that the two parties would not compete aggressively in each other’s strongholds. The row appeared to cool after an emergency meeting at State House on 23 April, where Ruto and ODM leaders agreed to structured consultations and described the relationship as a “coalition of equals.” ODM later said the meeting was the first step toward formal coalition talks. But the core issues remain. ODM wants protection for its Nyanza and Coast bases, a formal role in future power-sharing and influence over the 2027 political settlement. UDA has rejected zoning as incompatible with democratic competition, even as its leaders say the partnership with ODM remains intact. The tension reflects a bigger strategic contest: Ruto is seeking to work with ODM at the top level while expanding UDA’s reach at the grassroots. That approach could strengthen his political position, but it also risks collapsing the partnership if ODM concludes it is being absorbed rather than treated as an equal. For now, both sides have chosen to lower the temperature. ODM has planned youth conventions and a leadership retreat in the coming weeks, which will offer the next test of whether the truce holds or the dispute returns.